Rates pause. Mortgage costs ease. And the DMV continues to split into two markets at once.

Rates pause. Mortgage costs ease. And the DMV continues to split into two markets at once.

Stay ahead of the market with expert insights, real-time data, and the signals shaping real estate across Washington, DC, Maryland, and Virginia.

WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

The vibe this week is cautious momentum.

Mortgage rates are hovering near their lowest levels in roughly three years, pulling buyers back off the sidelines—without suddenly fixing affordability. The Fed appears content to pause and observe, which keeps markets sensitive to incoming data but directionally supportive as we head toward spring.

Locally, the DMV remains a two-speed market. Certain DC segments—especially condos—continue to face friction, while many MD and VA pockets are once again seeing strong demand, quick absorption, and competitive behavior when homes are priced and positioned correctly.

TOP HEADLINES

1. Fed signals a pause as policymakers wait for clearer data
2. Freddie Mac: 30-year fixed averages 6.09% (lowest level in ~3 years)
3. DC Metro divergence: DC inventory up—MD/VA remain supply-constrained

DETAILED REPORTS

1) Fed set to pause rate moves

What happened:
After prior easing, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady, balancing cooling inflation against a labor market that remains resilient.

Why it matters (National + DMV):
A “pause with uncertainty” keeps bond yields—and mortgage rates—highly sensitive to each data release. Even without formal Fed action, rates can move quickly week to week.

In the DMV, where monthly payment math still dictates buyer behavior, small rate shifts meaningfully change demand, especially in mid-to-upper price bands.

Practical takeaways:

• Buyers: Lock strategy matters. Assume volatility, not a smooth glide downward. Set a payment ceiling and don’t chase headlines.

• Sellers: Price to today’s payment reality, not last year’s peak comps. Early showing activity still tells the truth fast.

• Investors: Underwrite conservatively and expect rate noise to persist into spring.

2) Freddie Mac: 30-year fixed at 6.09%

What happened:
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.09% as of January 22, 2026, the lowest level in roughly three years.

Why it matters (National + DMV):
This is the clearest tailwind for early-2026 transaction volume. In high-cost DMV neighborhoods, even modest rate relief can reopen price bands that were effectively frozen in 2024.

Practical takeaways:

• Buyers: Re-run pre-approvals. Your real buying range may have expanded—but discipline still matters.

• Sellers: Well-located, well-prepped homes are seeing renewed urgency. Stale or compromised listings are not being forgiven.

• Investors: Financing near 6% can make select value-add deals work again—but only at the right basis.

3) DC Metro divergence: one region, two markets

What happened:
DC inventory has climbed notably since 2019, driven largely by weaker demand for certain condo segments. Meanwhile, many Maryland and Virginia submarkets remain below pre-2019 inventory levels.

Why it matters (National + DMV):
This is the DMV’s internal fault line. Product type and jurisdiction now drive negotiating leverage more than headline “market conditions.”

Practical takeaways:

• Buyers: DC condo shoppers may find real leverage—price adjustments, credits, and inspection flexibility.

• Sellers: Strategy must match reality. Softer DC segments require sharper pricing and positioning; tight MD/VA pockets still reward clean launches.

• Investors: Condo and single-family dynamics are diverging. Exit liquidity must be underwritten carefully.

INVESTOR INSIGHT OF THE WEEK

Headline-sensitive rate environments reward discipline.
The best DMV deals are not the ones that only work if rates drift lower—they’re the ones that still perform if rates jump temporarily.

Bold takeaway:
Survivability beats optimism. Build deals that hold up under volatility.

THE SYNERGY SYNTHESIS — MARKET VERDICT

The macro picture remains a paradox: rates are more favorable than they’ve been in years, yet uncertainty keeps buyers selective and reactive.

Locally, the DMV is not cooling uniformly. Quality inventory in strong MD and VA pockets is moving—and often quickly—when pricing and presentation align. DC condos remain the soft spot, with more inventory and greater sensitivity to payment math.

Opportunity (next 2–6 weeks):
Capitalize on brief rate dips and target segments where leverage still exists.

Risk:
Buyers overreacting to week-to-week headlines and missing solid entry points.

WHY IT MATTERS (THIS WEEK)

Bottom line:
The Fed is watching. Rates are cooperating—for now. And the DMV continues to reward precision over prediction. Want the real read on your specific neighborhood? Talk to us.