How the 2024 Presidential Election Could Shape the Housing Market:

October Market Insights: Key DMV Housing Trends
Before diving into how the upcoming presidential election might impact the housing market, let’s start with this month’s Market Insights. In our latest video, we cover the most recent RBI stats for the Washington, D.C., Montgomery County, and Arlington areas, including trends in average sales prices, days on market, and active listings. Watch the video below for a full breakdown of how the fall market is shaping up.

How the 2024 Presidential Election Could Shape the Housing Market: 

As we approach the 2024 presidential election, homebuyers, sellers, and investors alike are questioning how this political transition might affect the U.S. housing market. Historically, election years have introduced uncertainty into economic sectors, including real estate. However, data from past election cycles indicates that the market often remains resilient, with home prices showing overall upward trends.

In this article, we’ll explore expert insights on how the housing market is likely to respond to this year's election and what homeowners and investors can expect in terms of price changes, interest rates, and policy shifts. We’ll also provide practical tips on how to navigate the real estate market during this pivotal time.

Election Year Housing Trends: Historical Data on Price Changes

Historically, presidential elections have caused temporary slowdowns in housing market activity due to political uncertainty. According to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home prices have generally risen during both election years and the years that follow. However, short-term market hesitancy is common, as buyers and sellers often adopt a "wait-and-see" approach.

This chart, provided by NAR, illustrates how the annual change in the median sale price of existing homes fluctuates during election years. Notably, the housing market showed resilience across most election cycles, from President Nixon to President Biden, except during the 2008 financial crisis under President Obama when prices dropped​

The full NAR report, including a deeper analysis of these trends, can be found here: 

​https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics

Expert Predictions for the 2024 Election Year

Experts agree that while election years can create short-term uncertainty in the housing market, the overall long-term outlook remains positive. Key factors such as supply shortages, mortgage rates, and investment strategies play a major role in determining how the market will evolve during and after the election.

Key Trends to Watch:

1. Price Resilience Amid Supply Constraints: Economist Matthew Gardner predicts that despite political uncertainty, home prices are expected to stay elevated due to the ongoing shortage of housing inventory. Even if demand weakens slightly, this supply issue will keep prices high​

2. Volatility in Mortgage Rates: Experts like Brent Chandler anticipate that mortgage rates could fluctuate depending on Federal Reserve actions. Rates are currently hovering around 6%, but any post-election fiscal policy changes could influence them further. A rate cut could potentially bring millions of new buyers into the market​

3. Investment Hesitancy: Corporate investors, who have played an increasingly dominant role in recent years, may adopt a cautious stance until election results are finalized. This could create a temporary lull in investment activity, but analysts expect a rebound once new policies are clear​

How Policy Shifts Will Influence the Market

Housing policies from the incoming administration will play a significant role in shaping the market. Both major candidates have proposed housing initiatives with vastly different approaches, from expanding affordable housing to deregulating development processes.

• Affordable Housing Initiatives: A Harris administration may focus on building affordable housing and expanding urban development, which could increase supply but may take time to show tangible results​

• Deregulation and Supply-Side Stimulus: A Trump administration is likely to focus on deregulation to ease construction and development, which may help alleviate the supply crisis. However, the full impact on housing affordability may vary depending on other economic factors​

Do’s and Don’ts for Selling Real Estate During Election Years

Whether you're a buyer or a seller, navigating the real estate market during an election year requires strategic thinking. Here are some key do’s and don’ts to consider:

Do’s

1. Focus on Local Market Trends: National political uncertainty may not reflect your local housing market. Analyze local conditions and tailor your approach based on specific market trends in your area

2. Emphasize Long-Term Stability: Buyers often look for stability during uncertain times. Highlight the long-term benefits of owning property in a stable market​

3. Leverage Technology for Virtual Engagement: With potential economic uncertainty lowering foot traffic at open houses, use virtual tours, videos, and interactive floor plans to keep buyers engaged​

4. Stay Informed About Policy Changes: Keep an eye on policy proposals from both candidates. Understanding potential changes to mortgage rates, taxes, and housing incentives can help you provide accurate advice to buyers and sellers​

    

Don’ts

1. Avoid Political Conversations: Stay neutral when discussing politics with clients. Focus on the market and property instead of engaging in political debates​

2. Don’t Overprice Your Property: In an already hesitant market, overpricing can drive buyers away. Set competitive, data-backed prices to attract buyers during uncertain times​

3. Don’t Rush or Panic: Real estate is a long-term game. Stick to your strategy rather than making hasty decisions based on short-term political uncertainty​

4. Don’t Neglect Property Marketing: Ensure that your property’s key selling points, such as updated features or energy-efficient designs, are highlighted to stand out to buyers during an election year​

Conclusion

While the 2024 presidential election may introduce short-term uncertainty into the housing market, historical data and expert insights suggest that real estate remains a stable long-term investment. Whether you're a buyer, seller, or investor, staying informed about local market trends and potential policy changes is crucial for making well-timed decisions. As always, real estate remains a resilient asset, regardless of political transitions.